Niagen Bioscience: A Breakout Quarter That Now Faces Its Biggest Market Shift In Years

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Excerpt

The following is a 250-word excerpt from my full article on Seeking Alpha: A crowdsourced financial market content service where investors can share ideas, discuss news, and make informed investment decisions. Below is a link to the full article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4844208-niagen-bioscience-a-breakout-quarter-that-now-faces-its-biggest-market-shift-in-years

Summary

• Niagen Bioscience delivered record Q3 revenue, rising 33% year-over-year, driven by strong Tru Niagen demand and accelerating distribution partnerships.

• Gross margin expanded to 64.5%, while operating income and adjusted EBITDA grew sharply, reflecting improving scale and cost discipline.

• Cash from operations already exceeded last year’s total, supporting a new $10 million share repurchase program.

• The FDA’s reversal on NMN introduces meaningful uncertainty for future demand and competitive dynamics in the NAD+ category.

• Niagen Bioscience remains financially strong, but sustained momentum in a post-NMN market is unproven, warranting a hold rating.

Investment Thesis

I give Niagen Bioscience (NAGE) a hold rating because, although the company had a record quarter, it still faces an even more competitive landscape in the NAD+ market given the FDA's recent reversal on NMN. Tru Niagen sales still remain robust, and revenue growth is supported further by the company's expanding e-commerce, B2B distribution, and their rapidly growing footprint in the clinic space. The company also had record cash flow and has launched a share repurchase program to end their ten-year era of stock dilution. Nevertheless, it's still unclear as to whether the company's momentum in terms of revenue was durable or simply represents NMN's two-year absence from the marketplace. Either way, until post-NMN demand is clear and the impact of share repurchases becomes visible in the company's numbers, I believe the company merits a hold rating…